Is The Bike Shortage Real, And What To Do About It?

If you’ve been wondering what has happened to the bicycle supply in the last season, here’s a concise but thorough explanation from industry press. The writer is from Australia, but observations translate easily to the US market. And if you’re wondering why the heck we can’t make bikes in the US, this article from Bicycling Magazine makes a decent stab at an explanation.

The questions I will try to answer are: will this shortage really be as bad as all that, and what can you do if you’d like to spent a portion of your summer season on a bicycle.

Is the bike shortage real?

In a word: yes. The shortages will be significant, particularly for entry-level bikes, which, you may be shocked to learn, can include bikes up to $1000. Some shops, including ours, may have a little inventory currently on hand, comprised mostly of bikes left over from the fall, and a few odd orders that made a surprise appearance in December.

In a normal year, we’d be starting to ramp up for the Spring season between late January and early March. This year? Not really. First, our pre-order quantities were limited by suppliers from the get-go from what would be usual pre-season quantities. Second, of the bikes that were due to arrive on those late winter shipments, many have been delayed due to component outages. The delays are currently expected to last through May/June, but we really won’t know until those bikes are “on the water”.

Some bikes are bound to arrive during Spring, but they’re likely to be unpredictable, limited in number, selection, and generally higher price points. This is true of all bike shops nationwide, regardless of their size or the brands of bikes they carry.

What can you do to get a bike?

You may —through some stroke of serendipity— walk into a bike shop just as they’re unloading a new bike shipment, and find one that fits you perfectly. Or you may spend the whole summer searching, and come up empty-handed.

Currently, there are very few guarantees. Last season, a number of shops around the country got into hot water by pre-selling bikes it turned out they could not get. We’ve made every effort to only take pre-orders on bikes we knew were allocated to us. But even so, many of those pre-ordered bikes were significantly delayed (as in 4-12 weeks) for reasons entirely beyond our or our distributors’ control.

Here are some steps I would recommend to increase your chances of success, with some important caveats, since my recommendations are based on what we do at Cosmic Bikes, and other shops operate under different guidelines:

1. Set a reasonable budget.
   Entry-level pricing for a decent, shop-quality* bike is likely to start somewhere between $550-$750, but even these are likely to be scarce. The hybrid and city bikes we’re expecting in our shop will likely initially be between $750-$900. This may be higher than what you expected, not only because of limited supply, but also new tariffs, increases in material costs, and exorbitant increases in freight charges.
   Bikes shops were absolutely overrun last season, and it can be frustrating for overworked shop personnel to answer questions about items that simply do not exist. While under normal circumstances it might be possible to get a bike for $350-$450, this is not likely to be the season for it. You’ll have more productive conversations with shop staff if you have reasonable expectations (more on budgetary concerns below).
   Think about it this way: in the era of planned obsolescence, a bicycle is remarkable for its longevity. If you’re lucky enough to find one this season, for your initial investment, it will reward you with many years of service. Much more on bike pricing is here, here and here.

2. Get your name on a list.
   While shops may not be taking pre-orders, some may be keeping a waiting list. We keep an informal chronological list, with no obligation on either side (until money changes hands). We will not be offended if you get on lists at other shops. Here’s the thing: don’t put your name on a list if you’re not serious about buying, and do inform the shop if you’ve purchased your bike elsewhere. Which brings us to an extremely tricky next step.

3. Find the best way to communicate with the bike shop
   Bike shops generally operate without the benefit of secretaries, and it can be prohibitive during the seasonal crush to call a long list of prospects who are no longer interested. I would urge you to not be dismayed at any lapse in communication, but to take the initiative to periodically follow-up yourself. And here’s the important caveat: all shops handle their communications differently, and not all respond well to frequent follow-ups. At this point, many shops will have their preferred method of communication clearly spelled out. You will vastly increase your chances of success if you follow their specific guidelines. For example, if the shop says “no voicemail please” (as ours does), leaving five voicemails will not get you the results you seek. We simply do not check voicemail, period. However, we’re very good at answering texts, which we can do quickly and easily any time we have a breather, and to easily keep track of all communications with you. So we invite you to text us follow-up questions and requests.

4. Put money down.
   We will accept pre-orders when any of our vendors have confirmed a shipment. If you want to reserve a bike on an upcoming shipment, you should be prepared to put down a 50% deposit. Without it, the bike will be sold to the next interested customer. At Cosmic Bikes, deposits on stock bikes are always refundable (this applies to stock bikes coming in on future orders, but may not apply to special order or custom bikes). Refund policies vary from store to store, so only make a deposit if you’re comfortable with the conditions.
   Please understand that despite best efforts delivery times will continue to be unpredictable.

5. Other alternatives
   If you do not already have a bike, and either can’t find a new one locally or the price is more that you can afford, here are my recommendations:

• Avoid department store bikes. See footnote below.

• Find a used bike from a dependable source. Keep in mind that used bike resellers are also scrambling to respond to widespread shortages, and be especially careful about thieves and swindlers.

• Normally, we do not recommend buying bikes from online resellers, but all bets are off during the pandemic, so at least be informed.

Footnote:

*”Shop quality” is not simply a snobby designation. There are important differences in the quality of materials, components, manufacturing and services offered with bikes purchased from specialty stores vs mass merchants. More on that here.